Looking to 2020

What I'm looking for from the next five years, all measures adjusted for inflation:

Disposable income to rise (NNDI)

Median income to rise and the difference from Mean income reduced

House prices and rents to fall.

Employment rates to rise.

The economists are warning about the fall in productivity and increase in the current account deficit, neither of which have had much attention in this election.

The above were written before the result but are independant of it. The following are my concerns now a Tory government has won.

Leaving the EU 

Driving the Scots towards Independance

The rise of English nationalism.

Irish Referendum

It was very sad to see the negative comments from the Vatican after the Irish Marriage vote. This is what I think a Christian Church should be saying:

We welcome the result of the referendum and rejoice in the joy and peace of mind that so many gay couples will now enjoy. Opponents of these marriage proposals must remember that this was a state referendum, for state laws, and not a referendum on the Church or our religious marriage. The state had a duty to protect its citizens within the law and must now extend the legal union of marriage to gay couples.

Opponents of this referendum must also reflect on the Churches teachings, and consider the many troubles the world has and show compassion to those that find love outside of the Church.

Why I'm Voting Labour

Summary

I will be voting Labour, not because I am enthusiastic supporter nor because I see them as the lesser of two evils. I see the choice as between the imperfect and the wrong. Labour are scarred by the disappointments of their years in office, but after five years of the Conservatives we are sharply reminded of the deceit and damage they bring. I see Labour under Miliband as unlovable but pointing at the right problems. Their solutions are sometimes wrong and often insufficient but broadly they are working on the right areas. The Conservatives, particularly George Osborne, are deceitful about what is happening, what they’ve done and what they will do next. I don’t doubt David Cameron’s sincerity but he’s not in control of his team and doesn’t understand the impact of their policies.
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-camerons-broken-promises/20429

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/governments-reorganisation-of-the-nhs-was-its-biggest-mistake-say-senior-tories-9790247.html

The Economy

Consider the economy, floored by the banking crisis, and as it got to its feet Osborne came along and put his foot firmly on its throat for two years. When he eventually loosened the pressure the economy started to get back to its feet and now Osborne has the audacity to claim himself a miracle worker, a healer.

An election must always focus on the economy, it’s the basis of all other policy decisions. The Tories are promising, yes promising, more cuts. Having presided over the worst recovery in modern history thanks to their economically illiterate austerity, they haven’t finished with the pain. Osborne likes to pretend that the economy is in great shape thanks to the the current growth, but let’s put that into perspective.

We had a financial disaster on Labour’s watch, so the Tories try to pretend it wouldn’t have happened with them. They pretend it was Labour’s spending, yet at the time it was so bad they agreed to match it. We know that the real cause was lax regulation, but there is surely no one that thinks the Tories would have introduced tougher regulation. After the recession we had a recovery under way, but when Osborne got in control his austerity plan killed it, only when he switched to plan B did recovery begin again.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/09/what-osborne-wont-admit-growth-has-increased-because-slower-cuts

http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/osbornes-plan-b.html

http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/disaster.html

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/recessions-and-recoveries-historical-perspective-updated-april-9-2013#.VRe09VyiVUR

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/britain-has-taken-longer-to-recover-from-recession-than-at-any-time-since-the-south-sea-bubble-9645218.html

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/01/worst-recovery-in-history-british-gdp-shrinks-by-0-3-per-cent/

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/austerity-past-present-and-future/

We still haven’t got the economy back to where it was before the crash with Real GDP per capita still below its peak and household disposable income only just recovering with a helping hand from oil prices drops.

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/press-releases/household-incomes-to-grow-steadily-next-year-but-full-recovery-not-expected-until-early-2016/

The only good news for the Tories are the job numbers, but even this has a dark side due to the poor productivity. If they want to claim they caused the high employment rate then they are admitting they caused poor productivity.
http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/why-strong-uk-employment-growth-could.html

There is also the much discussed quality of available work, with underemployment being a real problem for many.
https://www.tuc.org.uk/economic-issues/labour-market/record-number-people-are-looking-extra-hours-top-their-wages


Discussion of the deficit always focusses on the cuts, but a deficit is the difference between income and spending, why don’t we discuss how to invest in the economy so that it grows and the government can increase its income? Austerity is like a shop keeper who stops putting stock on the shelves because it costs money. Austerity is like a worker, faced with rising commuting costs, stops going to work to save money.

Welfare

This is a huge area of deceit, with the government pretending that all welfare is scrounging. Leaving aside the crucial argument of the economic benefits of insurance against temporary loss of income, let me first concentrate on what they say is welfare and what it isn’t.

Pensions are a huge part of government described welfare, and unless they plan to cut pensions or have a radical plan for stopping people getting old this cost is going up.

The actual amount that goes to people who don’t work is a few percent of the total. Far more goes to people who are working, in effect this is corporate welfare for employers not employees and is used to offset the declining income workers.

Housing benefit is another source of benefit described as scrounging, but is actual a welfare payment to wealthy amateur landlords. This payment is not used by the tenants, and highlights the dysfunctional housing market.

The final, large part of welfare covers health, care and family support. All can be discussed in terms of relevance or cost, but to cut them under the guise of cutting off scroungers is shameful.

Housing

The rise of house prices was the facilitator for the private debt that fed the banking crisis. With the decline of incomes families used housing backed debt to cover their spending gap. As more houses became unaffordable the rental sector expands, but with no social housing from local governments the only option is a private market backed by housing benefits. The next government needs to restore the idea that housing is for homes not for profiteering.

Local councils need to be allowed to raise money to build homes for rent as a control against rising private rents. Taking steps to reduce the profitability of buy to let will also take the steam out of the housing market. Ultimately a government should ensure that house price rises don’t go above income rises.

NHS

No top down reorganisation was promised but then it came anyway because Cameron didn’t understand what was happening.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/governments-reorganisation-of-the-nhs-was-its-biggest-mistake-say-senior-tories-9790247.html

The Tories initially promised to not cut the spending, but with inflation and an ageing population costs will not stay still, so the NHS will be cut further. In the last few days they claim they will fill the funding gaps, but the detail of the policy looks like a political gamble rather than a plan.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32260220

With more dogma driven privatisation like the calamitous Hinchingbrooke contract, where even failure is not a bar to future contracts. Privatisation creates monopolies for the successful business with a transfer of funds to the bonuses of executives who only know how to cut costs by cutting wages and staff.

Election Calculations

Election Calculations

My basic assumptions based on extensive polling reports are that the Conservatives will be the party with the most seats but the “Tory Bloc” will have less seats than the “Labour Bloc”.

The changes needed to move this on election day are, firstly small party voters in a marginal seat switching to a main party. Secondly private Tories, those that support other parties publicly but always switch to a Tory vote. In Scotland there is expected to be an equivalent private Labour voter, who claim to support SNP in public but will vote Labour. Finally a high turnout amongst young voters will likely favour Labour.


The maths and the risks
Life will be simpler if David Cameron resigns immediately and allows Ed Miliband to form a minority government, but I don’t see the Tories giving up so easily. Without any deals Labour could expect to pass most bills, but the Tories could only pass bills via an explicit deal with the SNP.

The danger for Labour is using the “Labour Bloc” superior seat numbers to remove David Cameron in a no confidence vote if they have less actual votes in their “Bloc”. The Tories will use this to talk up a coup, and it will probably be very politically damaging to Labour. e.g.
Conservative > 35%
Labour+SNP < 35%

It’s possible and perhaps likely that the Liberal Democrats won’t form a Tory coalition again, but probably will agree to support the Tories in a no confidence vote. e.g.
Conservative + Liberal Democrat + others > 58% of votes
Labour + SNP + others < 42% of votes

In these circumstances I think Labour can vote against bills put forward by the government but abstain on a no confidence vote.

Therefore I believe Labour will be hoping to gain enough votes, not just enough seats, to secure a period in government. Whoever you vote for this time, regardless of it’s impact in your constituency, will have an impact on Government.