Election Calculations

Election Calculations

My basic assumptions based on extensive polling reports are that the Conservatives will be the party with the most seats but the “Tory Bloc” will have less seats than the “Labour Bloc”.

The changes needed to move this on election day are, firstly small party voters in a marginal seat switching to a main party. Secondly private Tories, those that support other parties publicly but always switch to a Tory vote. In Scotland there is expected to be an equivalent private Labour voter, who claim to support SNP in public but will vote Labour. Finally a high turnout amongst young voters will likely favour Labour.


The maths and the risks
Life will be simpler if David Cameron resigns immediately and allows Ed Miliband to form a minority government, but I don’t see the Tories giving up so easily. Without any deals Labour could expect to pass most bills, but the Tories could only pass bills via an explicit deal with the SNP.

The danger for Labour is using the “Labour Bloc” superior seat numbers to remove David Cameron in a no confidence vote if they have less actual votes in their “Bloc”. The Tories will use this to talk up a coup, and it will probably be very politically damaging to Labour. e.g.
Conservative > 35%
Labour+SNP < 35%

It’s possible and perhaps likely that the Liberal Democrats won’t form a Tory coalition again, but probably will agree to support the Tories in a no confidence vote. e.g.
Conservative + Liberal Democrat + others > 58% of votes
Labour + SNP + others < 42% of votes

In these circumstances I think Labour can vote against bills put forward by the government but abstain on a no confidence vote.

Therefore I believe Labour will be hoping to gain enough votes, not just enough seats, to secure a period in government. Whoever you vote for this time, regardless of it’s impact in your constituency, will have an impact on Government.